Mets have opportunity to get back to .500 with three games in Miami (2024)

Coming off a series in which they dropped three of four in Philadelphia, the Mets (20-23) are set to play a three-game series in Miami against the Marlins (13-32), the team with the worst record in Major League Baseball.

There are no guarantees when playing a bad team, but the Mets really have an opportunity to bounce back from a stretch that just saw them go 2-5 against the Braves and Phillies, dropping them four games below .500 at the lowest point of that stretch. A dramatic extra-inning win last night in Philadelphia was a step in the right direction, and if they seize upon the opportunity presented to them by the schedule this weekend, they could end the weekend in relatively good shape.

With 3.62 runs scored per game, the Marlins are tied with the Blue Jays for the third-lowest rate of scoring in baseball. Miami’s 77 wRC+ is the second-worst mark in the league, slightly ahead of the lowly White Sox. And when it comes to run prevention, the Marlins are even worse, as they rank dead last with 5.56 runs allowed per game. Miami’s rotation has a 5.37 ERA that is better than only that of Rockies. And things aren’t much better with their bullpen, which ranks 26th with a 4.69 ERA.

Having dealt with a slew of injuries and seeing that this season wasn’t going to live up to the team’s Wild Card appearance last year, the Marlins have already traded away Luis Arráez, who last year hit .353 and won the National League batting title seemingly with ease.

This being a series in Miami, however, means the Mets should take nothing for granted. Over the years, the team has seen its fair share of bizarre losses when visiting the Marlins, and even this particular version of Miami’s baseball team has picked up a few wins over teams that have much better records than the Mets so far this year.

Friday, May 17: Christian Scott vs. Jesús Luzardo at 7:10 PM EDT on SNY

Scott (2024): 12.1 IP, 14 K, 3 BB, 1 HR, 2.84 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 74 ERA-

While Scott’s second major league start didn’t quite match his excellent debut, he still pitched very respectably against the Braves. Through two starts, his numbers remain excellent, and while pitcher wins aren’t as important as they once were and rarely get mentioned around these parts, he has an opportunity to pick up his first big league win in the series opener—provided the Mets score more than one run like they have in each of his first two starts.

Luzardo (2024): 31.2 IP, 35 K, 14 BB, 5 HR, 5.97 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 148 ERA-

The 26-year-old lefty didn’t find instant success upon being traded to Miami in 2021, but he really turned the corner in 2022 and kept it up in 2023, putting up a 3.48 ERA in 279.0 innings of work between those two seasons. His walk and home run rates are both up compared to the past two years, and Luzardo has really struggled with runners on base, as his strand rate is down nearly 15 percentage points from last year. An elbow issue saw Luzardo hit the injured list in late April, and he returned to the Marlins’ rotation the last time through following one rehab start in the minors.

Saturday, May 18: Luis Severino vs. Braxton Garrett at 4:10 PM EDT on WPIX

Severino (2024): 45.0 IP, 41 K, 20 BB, 3 HR, 3.00 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 78 ERA-

With Kodai Senga still out, Severino has made a case for being the Mets’ ace thus far, as he leads the team in innings pitched and has the lowest ERA of any Mets starter other than Scott. He navigated a three-start stretch against good teams pretty well in his last three starts, too, as he had a 3.50 ERA in 18.0 innings against the Cubs, Rays, and Braves.

Garrett (2024): 5.1 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 1 HR, 8.44 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 209 ERA-

A shoulder issue delayed the start of Garrett’s season, and his first start back in the rotation saw him give up too five runs in just five-and-one-third innings, but the strikeouts and walks were very much there for him. Last year, Garrett made 31 appearances and had a 3.66 ERA and a 3.68 FIP in 159.2 innings of work.

Sunday, May 19: Sean Manaea vs. Sixto Sánchez at 1:40 PM EDT on WPIX

Manaea (2024): 41.1 IP, 37 K, 20 BB, 1 HR, 3.05 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 80 ERA-

Like Severino, Manaea has been everything the Mets could have hoped for when they signed him in free agency during the offseason, and the two of them are putting up rather similar numbers thus far. Manaea held the Phillies to just one run in six innings on Monday night with six strikeouts and just one walk—the second start in a row in which he’s walked just one batter after struggling with free passes to start the season.

Sánchez (2024): 22.2 IP, 13 K, 9 BB, 2 HR, 5.96 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 148 ERA-

Shoulder surgeries cost Sánchez the 2021 through 2023 seasons, as he made just one appearance—for one inning—in a minor league rehab outing over the course of those three seasons. Healthy again to start this season, he began the year in Miami’s bullpen but has appeared as a starting pitcher in each of his last four outings. The longest he’s gone in any of those starts was four-and-two-thirds innings, which came his last time out in a pretty good start against the Tigers, and he has a 5.87 ERA thus far as a starter.