Orioles-Mariners series preview: A pitching powerhouse arrives in town (2024)

Hello! It’s the Seattle Mariners. A team that doesn’t really bother anyone around these parts, since they play far out West, and the memories between the two teams have been mostly nice: Adley Rutschman (and his dad, Randy) proudly repping his team in last year’s Home Run Derby; Cal Ripken Jr. homering in his last All-Star Game in 2001; Mike Mussina outdueling Randy Johnson in the 1997 ALDS; the Orioles getting Adam Jones and Chris Tillman for Erik Bedard in 2008.

But that’s all in the past. Despite mostly standing pat in the offseason, the 2024 Mariners are no pushovers. After missing the playoffs by one game in 2023, they’re currently tops in the AL West, with a one-and-a-half-game lead in the AL West over last year’s champion Texas, and boast one of best rotations in the Majors. Fangraphs/PECOTA projected Seattle as an 84/85-win team, respectively. Despite going 5-5 in their last ten games, against Minnesota, Oakland and Kansas City, the team remains about on pace for about 88 wins.

The Mariners’ rotation doesn’t look too different from last season’s—but when you have the AL’s best ERA in ‘23, that’s not a bad thing. Seattle has a tough top three trio of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and George Kirby, all of whom will be under team control through 2027. With a 2.94 ERA and 54 K’s in eight starts this season, the 27-year-old Gilbert has already appeared on early Cy Young shortlists (and Castillo, Kirby and Bryce Miller are also getting notice). At the back end, closer Andrés Muñoz has been highly effective, with a 1.62 ERA, 235 ERA+ and 21 K’s in 16 innings. Also part of the bullpen are two former Orioles, Eduard Bazardo and Austin Voth, and Voth is having a good year so far.

The offense, meanwhile, has been average—well, bad is the more accurate term. Seattle strikes out more than any team in baseball, and they’re in the bottom four AL teams in runs scored, average (.227) and OBP (.301). Their one saving grace at the plate is home runs: they’ve hit 50, fourth-best in the AL.

Part of the issue is that the M’s allowed four of their best position players to walk in the offseason (Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez, Jarred Kelenic, José Caballero), and their replacements aren’t hitting. Former Twin Jorge Polanco has a .192 average, Mitch Haniger, acquired from San Francisco, is OPS’ing .654, and DH Mitch Garver, who won a ring last year with Texas, is slashing .174/.287/.347. 2022 Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez hasn’t found his power yet, with just two home runs. First baseman Ty France is OPS’ing .663. Shortstop J.P. Crawford was hitting .198 before he hit the 10-day IL.

There are a few bright spots at the plate for Seattle, though. Former utility player Josh Rojas has been a revelation, leading the team in average (.330), slugging (.482) and OPS (.877). Catcher Cal Raleigh is showing plenty of thump with a .759 OPS and a team-best ten home runs. And former Rays outfielder Luke Raley is hitting .276 with some pop, as well.

Last season, the O’s won the season series with Seattle for the first time since 2017. They’ll avoid Gilbert this time around, but they’ll still face a tough trio in Castillo-Kirby-Miller.

Game 1: Friday, May 17th, 7:05pm ET, MASN 2

Probable pitchers: John Means (1-0, 3.09 ERA, 11 SO in 11.2 IP) v. Bryce Miller (3-3, 2.66 ERA, 51 SO in 47.1 IP)

Which John Means will come to the park today? Means has made two starts since his return from Tommy John surgery in early 2022. His first was superb (7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 8 SO), the other average (4.2 IP, 4 R, 6 H, HR, 3 SO). But a 2.62 FIP suggests Means is working with good stuff, and even in his bad start he got nine swings and misses.

Facing Means will be second-year right-hander Bryce Miller. The former 4th-round draft pick out of Texas A&M had a solid rookie season (8-7, 4.32 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 119 SO in 131.1 IP) and he’s improved in most important categories. In eight starts totaling 47.1 innings, the 6’2” righty has a 2.66 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and has struck out 51 hitters. His four-seam fastball is one of the game’s best in run value, and he throws it often, as he should (45% of his pitches), although this is way down from last season’s 58.5%.

On May 5, Miller allowed four runs to Houston but got the win. And on May 11, he took a tough loss to Oakland despite throwing six two-run innings.

Game 2: Saturday, May 18th, 4:05pm ET, MASN 2, FS1

Probable pitchers: Dean Kremer (3-3, 3.72 ERA, 47 SO in 46 IP) vs. Luis Castillo (4-5, 3.31 ERA, 64 SO in 54.1 IP)

Dean Kremer is in the middle of a pretty solid year. None of his numbers pop off the page except strikeouts: he’s striking out 9.2 batters per game, which equals a 25.3 K%. Both, per Fangraphs, are “Great.” He’s allowing a fair amount of contact, but also getting lots of whiffs, especially from a new split-finger fastball. His last time out, Kremer allowed six runs (three earned) to Arizona in 5.2 innings and struck out ten.

Opposing Kremer for the Mariners is All-Star Luis Castillo. The three-time All Star was stellar for Seattle last season, going 14-9 with a 3.34 ERA in a league-leading 33 starts. He also whiffed 219 hitters in 197 innings. This season, Castillo is still shoving, despite getting very little run support. His 64 strikeouts are leading all AL starters. Castillo’s fastball is his No. 1 pitch (48%), followed by a slider which he prefers as a putaway pitch, especially against lefties. The right-hander used to throw his changeup more than any other pitch; now he uses it almost exclusively against lefties, against whom it’s got a 39.1% whiff rate.

Few current Orioles hitters have faced Castillo, a longtime Cincinnati Red. Ryan O’Hearn is 5-for-13 against the right-hander.

Game 3: Sunday, May 19th, 1:35pm ET, MASN 2, MLBN

Probable pitchers: Corbin Burnes (3-2, 2.68 ERA, 49 SO in 53.2 IP) v. George Kirby (4-3, 3.58 ERA, 51 SO in 50.1 IP)

Despite not scaling the highest of Cy Young-like heights since his astonishing 11-strikeout Opening Day start, Corbin Burnes continues to deliver each time he’s out on the mound. He’s never gone fewer than five innings, and has given up two-or-more earned runs only three times. Lately, he’s the mirror image of Kremer in that he’s not striking out a lot of hitters, but the contact allowed is very weak. Back in 2021, when he won the NL Cy Young, Burnes whiffed 13.27 hitters per game and walked 1.83, with a .201 opposing average allowed. This year, the K’s are down and the walks are up, at 9.29 and 3.07, respectively, but hitters continue to struggle against him, with just a .204 average.

Opposing Burnes is George Kirby, who’s been excellent in his first three seasons. The 2023 All-Star finished last season with a 3.35 ERA and the lowest walk rate in the Majors. BaseballSavant rates his 95.5 mph fastball simply one of the best in the game. Kirby doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters, but he walks almost none and isn’t allowing a lot of hard contact.

In his career, Kirby is 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA against Baltimore. Last season, he faced the Orioles twice and lost both … although, in fairness, the second was a complete-game shutout that the Birds won on a Ryan Mountcastle RBI single in extras. Austin Hays is 3-for-10 against the righty, Anthony Santander 4-for-12 with two home runs, Gunnar Henderson 1-for-4 and Adley 2-for-10.