College World Series 2024: Picks, predictions for NCAA baseball championship (2024)

Florida State needs ace Jamie Arnold to be much better than his five-run outing last weekend against UConn if it is to defeat the top seed in the CWS opener. The southpaw has the kind of strikeout stuff (155 Ks across 100.2 IP) to stifle the potent Tennessee lineup and is typically immune to blowup starts, so he is an excellent counter to the Vols' stack of AJ Causey and Chris Stamos. With both of these offenses presenting relentless contact and power skills, it feels like an evenly matched battle that will come down to the bullpen. That is quite possibly Florida State's biggest weakness, so the advantage goes to Tennessee.

Pick:Tennessee

Virginia took two of three from North Carolina in April and averaged 9.3 runs per game in that series. The Cavaliers are simply a bad matchup for the Tar Heels. They have the No. 2 offense nationally by batting average and can string together hits at a lethal rate with a lineup that does not have a single player hitting below .294. UNC could turn to either Jason DeCaro or Shea Sprague on the bump in this one, and neither of those staff headliners average close to a strikeout per inning, and the former walks about 4.5 batters per nine. Virginia is the kind of team that will capitalize on those deficiencies.

Pick: Virginia

There is no way around it. Losing Braden Montgomery is a significant blow to Texas A&M's national title hopes. But if there is any team that could overcome that kind of season-ending injury, it might just be the Aggies. This lineup still has two hitters in Jace LaViolette and Gavin Grahovac with more than 20 homers on the year, the offense is red-hot after torching Oregon in the super regional and Ryan Prager is the top pitching prospect in Omaha. While Florida is playing its best baseball of the year at the right time and has enough talent to go toe-to-toe with anyone, the Aggies are the best team the Gators have seen since they flipped into gear.

Pick:Texas A&M

While none of NC State's starting pitchers are particularly apt at keeping runners off the basepaths, Friday arm Sam Highfill is the best of them and draws the difficult challenge of containing the aggressive, contact-first Kentucky lineup. In a comparable matchup last month, he surrendered three runs on five hits and four walks across six innings against Virginia. A repeat of that effort might not be enough against a Wildcats team that is peaking at the right time on the mound and that just completely stifled one of the nation's best lineups in a two-game sweep of Oregon State.

Pick: Kentucky

The projected losers' bracket provides a fresh ACC matchup between Florida State and North Carolina, who reside in different conference divisions and did not go head-to-head during the regular season. For the Seminoles, slipping into the win-or-go-home section of the College World Series spells trouble given their shallow pitching staff, which has a difficult time keeping runners off the basepaths with its 1.47 combined WHIP and rosters only two arms (including just one reliever in Brennen Oxford) with season-long ERAs below 4.24. Meanwhile, UNC could piece together enough quality outings to fight through the losers' bracket and at least challenge for a spot in the finals.

So long as Tennessee gets past Florida State in the opener, it is hard to envision a world in which it does not emerge from Bracket 1 as the victor. The Vols have just one set of back-to-back losses on the year, and it came three months ago. Drew Beam and Zander Sechrist are arguably better than any of the other No. 2 or No. 3 pitchers in this half of the field, the bullpen behind them is about as strong as they come, and Christian Moore's 32 home runs leads a lineup in which seven players have double-digit round-trippers on the year.

Pick:Tennessee

Two of college baseball's hottest teams meet in the projected losers' side of Bracket 2 as one of NC State and Florida will see their magical late-season run come to an end. The Gators are the more talented team in this matchup and have a little bit more of an edge, so they get the nod in a matchup that should provide plenty of action on the bases. Kevin O'Sullivan's team already bounced back from one postseason loss and faced elimination in three-straight games in the Stillwater Regional, so these Gators know exactly what it takes to fight their way to a Bracket 2 title and CWS finals berth.

The battle between Texas A&M and Kentucky might be the most thrilling matchup in Omaha, at least until the finals. These are unquestionably two of the three best teams in the nation, and the winner promises to give Tennessee a real fight for the national title. The Aggies have the hotter offense of the two but rely heavily on those bats when Ryan Prager is not on the mound, as was on display last weekend when their piecemeal pitching approach surrendered 15 runs across two games to Oregon. If Kentucky's Mason Moore delivers a third-straight strong start, this game likely goes to the Wildcats. But Texas A&M has the bats to force him into one of the blowups he was prone to over the last two months.

Pick:Texas A&M

Elite front-line pitching and clutch, timely hitting are paramount in winning games at the CWS finals, and both Tennessee and Texas A&M thrive in those departments. This potential showdown would feature hordes of top-100 MLB Draft prospects and pit the two most star-studded teams remaining in the field against each other. The Vols took a 7-4 victory over the Aggies when they met in the SEC Tournament, and that battle featured the same starting pitchers that would take the mound in a CWS finals Game 1 situation.

Ryan Prager had a short leash in that game but feels likely to rise to the occasion in a championship environment. The combination of a fierce bullpen led by lockdown stopper Evan Aschenbeck and a blazing hot lineup that can keep pace with the Vols makes Texas A&M a daunting matchup. Watch for the Aggies to play with a bit of extra motivation as they bring home a title for Braden Montgomery, sending Tennessee home from Omaha disappointed yet again.

Pick: Texas A&M